The Custom Packaging Value Gap.
In the custom packaging segment, the gap between what a business is worth today and what it would be worth at Asset Class is rarely a function of growth or profitability. It is a function of substrate.
How the Value Gap is calculated
Three numbers govern the conversation:
- Gross Enterprise Value = TTM EBITDA × top multiple for the sector. For custom packaging at the high end of 12–18% margins, that multiple is typically 9.5x.
- Transferable Value = the post-due-diligence M&A price, calculated net of the company-specific risk the Strategic Capacity diagnostic quantifies. For most custom packaging businesses today, this number is materially below the Gross Enterprise Value.
- Value Gap = the difference. Wealth already created in the business, but not yet monetizable given current Strategic Capacity performance.
Why the Gap exists in custom packaging
The five most common drivers of the Value Gap in this category:
- Customer concentration in CPG accounts
- Substrate price volatility (paperboard, film, foil)
- Sustainability transition exposure (PFAS, recyclability)
- Capacity utilization and shift coverage
- Design and prepress workflow discipline
Trapped value by Dimension
The Three Dimensions of Business Growth, applied to custom packaging, surface trapped value in predictable places:
- Dimension 1 · Predictable Profits and Cash Flow. Trapped value lives in unsystemized cash flow delivery and owner-dependent operations. Closing this dimension expands the multiple base, not just the EBITDA.
- Dimension 2 · Predictable Sustainable Growth. Trapped value lives in undocumented growth engines. Press operators and design / converting talent.
- Dimension 3 · Predictable Transferable Value. Trapped value lives in the substrate itself: governance, succession, IP, customer ownership. This is where the BRI's six factors apply most directly.
The Battle-Ready factors that close the Gap fastest
In custom packaging, the binding factor is typically Loyalty. Investments here compound the multiple, not just the EBITDA:
Bench
Leadership depth and succession readiness without founder dependency.
Architecture
Operating systems, governance, decision rights, financial reporting discipline.
Transferability
Knowledge, customer relationships, and IP owned by the business, not by individuals.
Tempo
Operating cadence, financial discipline, reporting rhythm.
Loyalty · most exposed in this industry
Retention, culture, and succession stickiness through ownership change.
Endurance
Pressure-tested capacity to absorb ownership change and scale demand.
Best practice, well established in the Strategic Capacity research: build Growth Capacity (Dimensions 1 and 2) first, then Value Capacity (Dimension 3). Operational maturity amplifies exit value. The two are symbiotic.
How to quantify your Value Gap
The Value Report™ is the productized diagnostic that converts a Strategic Capacity Score into the dollar Value Gap for your business. Delivered in three business days after intake. Includes the Range of Values (Current Transferable Value, Value at High SC, 5-Year Potential), Trapped Value by Dimension, and the Strategic Decision frame.